The luxury watch market is in turmoil, and the latest report from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult reveals a shocking truth: the industry is more divided than ever. But here's where it gets controversial... While a handful of elite brands thrive, the majority are struggling to keep up. This in-depth analysis, hot on the heels of Vontobel’s Luxury Goods report, dives into the top 50 watch brands of 2025, ranking them by turnover and unit sales. And this is the part most people miss: despite record sales in 2023, the market is now contracting, with exports down 1.7% in value terms for the second consecutive year. The total retail value? A staggering CHF 49 billion, excluding VAT.
Morgan Stanley estimates the wholesale market for Swiss watches at CHF 25.9 billion in 2025, while the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS) reports exports at CHF 24.4 billion. But the real shocker? Industry volumes have more than halved since 2011, with quartz watches taking the biggest hit. Mechanical watches, however, have held relatively steady.
Now, let’s talk about the winners and losers. The market remains dominated by six powerhouse brands: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille. Here’s the twist: two of these are owned by major groups (Cartier by Richemont and Omega by Swatch Group), while four are privately held. The so-called “Big 4” (Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille) seem immune to market fluctuations, continuing to perform strongly despite global uncertainties. Yet, even these giants aren’t untouched—Rolex, for instance, saw a 2% decline in volumes for the first time in over two decades, as the brand strategically manages scarcity to maintain its allure.
But what about the rest? Ten brands within the Top 50 experienced a turnover contraction of 15% or more in 2025, including Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, and Breguet (all under Swatch Group), as well as Panerai, Roger Dubuis, Zenith, Girard-Perregaux, and Franck Muller. Even Omega, once Rolex’s closest rival, has slipped to fifth place as competitors outpace its growth.
The industry’s polarization is stark: while approximately 450 watch brands operate in Switzerland, the top four brands now control over 50% of the market, up from 52.4% in 2024. The “billionaires’ club” has also shrunk, with Longines dropping out this year, following Vacheron Constantin’s exit in 2024.
Another eye-opening trend? Ultra-premiumization. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 accounted for just 1.4% of volumes but represented 37% of export value and a whopping 89% of total growth in 2025. Meanwhile, the mid-range segment, once dominated by Swatch Group, is facing tough times. Still, Swatch Group remains a volume leader, selling approximately 8.8 million watches in 2025, or about 60% of the Swiss watch industry’s total volume.
High-end independent watchmakers, however, are thriving. Brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F saw revenue increases in 2025, and Christopher Ward made a notable entrance into the Top 50 as one of the few mid-range independents to grow in value.
Here’s the burning question: As the luxury watch market becomes increasingly polarized, will smaller brands survive, or will the giants continue to dominate? And what does this mean for the future of Swiss watchmaking? Share your thoughts in the comments—we’d love to hear your take on this evolving industry.
For more insights, visit Morgan Stanley (https://www.morganstanley.com/) and LuxeConsult (https://www.luxeconsult.ch/). Note that all figures are estimates from LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley Research, not directly provided by the brands.
