Can One Nation Shake Up South Australia’s Political Landscape? The Liberal Party’s Looming Nightmare at the State Election
Imagine stepping into a leadership role just 100 days before a critical election, only to face a political landscape dominated by your opponents and a surging populist party threatening to upend everything. That’s the reality for Ashton Hurn, the new leader of South Australia’s Liberal Party, who kicked off her campaign to the tune of Ain’t No Mountain High Enough. But here’s where it gets controversial: Hurn’s mountain isn’t just steep—it’s Mount Everest-level daunting. And this is the part most people miss: her party’s survival might hinge on how well she navigates the rise of One Nation, a force that could either fracture the right or hand Labor an even bigger victory.
Hurn’s challenge is monumental. The latest Newspoll reveals the Liberals are polling at a dismal 14%, a figure that could leave them without a single seat in parliament. Meanwhile, One Nation is surging at 24%, with Labor comfortably leading at 44%. But what does this mean for the state—and potentially, the nation? Could this election signal a broader shift in Australia’s political dynamics?
The Perfect Storm Against the Liberals
Hurn’s obstacles are as varied as they are formidable. First, there’s the party’s humiliating defeat in the last election, compounded by further seat losses since. Then, there’s the internal power struggle between the conservative faction, led by figures like Alex Antic, and the moderates. Add to that the turmoil within the federal Liberal Party, a popular Labor Premier in Peter Malinauskas, and the looming threat of One Nation, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. As Hurn herself admits, ‘It’s probably Mount Everest … it’s not Mount Lofty.’
One Nation’s Rise: A Game-Changer or a Flash in the Pan?
The surge in One Nation’s support has injected unprecedented interest into the SA election. Political scientist Rob Manwaring notes that while state elections rarely influence federal politics, this one is different. ‘For the first time, we’ll get a stronger sense of how the One Nation vote might fracture and splinter the far-right vote overall,’ he explains. But is this a localized phenomenon, or a harbinger of things to come nationally?
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential, points out that One Nation’s support in SA is lower than in states like Queensland and NSW. Yet, he adds, ‘SA is the interesting first test of whether intention translates to actual ballot box endorsement.’ But here’s the controversial question: Is One Nation’s rise a legitimate reflection of voter discontent, or a dangerous slide into populism?
Labor’s Dominance: Unstoppable or Overstated?
Labor, led by the charismatic and footy-loving Premier Peter Malinauskas, is on track for a landslide victory. Polling suggests they could win big, potentially leaving the Liberals without a single lower house seat. Malinauskas, however, remains focused on broader issues, warning against the rise of populist politics. ‘The world is becoming a more complex place,’ he says, ‘and there’s a risk when people rush to simplistic, populist policies.’
Yet, Malinauskas’s premiership hasn’t been without challenges. From ministerial resignations to controversies over sporting events and environmental issues, his government has faced its share of criticism. Still, his popularity remains high, and he touts the state’s economic achievements, including full employment and the fastest-growing wages in the nation.
The Liberals’ Crisis: A Party in Disarray
The SA Liberal Party has long been divided between conservatives and moderates, but recent years have seen a hardline conservative takeover. This internal strife has been exacerbated by a series of mini-crises, including the resignation of former leader David Speirs after drug-related charges, and the defection of several MPs to become independents. Hurn, an accomplished and respected MP, now faces what some call a ‘glass cliff’—a leadership role that could end in political ruin.
Hurn rejects this characterization, insisting, ‘My colleagues saw in me someone who’s a leader, who can give it their all.’ But with One Nation poised to potentially become the official opposition, the Liberals’ future looks increasingly uncertain.
Preferences: The Wild Card
One Nation’s upper house candidate, Cory Bernardi, claims the party will be the ‘strongest voice of opposition’ if elected. Yet, experts like Manwaring caution that voting patterns are becoming more volatile, making it difficult to predict how preferences will flow. One Nation’s strength lies in regional and rural areas, but its weak party machinery and history of defections could limit its impact.
The Bigger Picture: What’s at Stake?
This election isn’t just about South Australia—it’s a test of whether One Nation can translate its populist appeal into real political power. As Lewis puts it, ‘If you wanted a live test of your viability [as One Nation], you probably wouldn’t choose SA.’ But if they can make it here, they might just make it anywhere.
Thought-Provoking Questions for You:
- Is One Nation’s rise a legitimate response to voter frustration, or a dangerous slide into populism?
- Can the Liberal Party recover from its internal divisions and external challenges, or is it headed for political irrelevance in SA?
- What does this election tell us about the future of Australian politics—both at the state and federal levels?
Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a discussion!
